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Brent crude/USD (futures) · weekly
Elliott wave read, as of 2026-10-23
A hand-built weekly interpretation using completed sessions through 23 October 2026. The labels are candidate structures; internal subdivisions have not been established at every degree. Invalidation uses an intraday breach of the named level, not a daily-close trading rule.
Primary
An A–B–C recovery of the April–July decline is nearing resistance
- The April 30 high at $126.10 fell to $70.14 on July 2. Brent made its spring high later than WTI, so this count anchors to April rather than importing the WTI March pivot.
- Candidate A rallied to $102.01 on July 23; B pulled back to $78.13 on August 5. The subsequent C has reached $117.41, with the October 23 close at $116.72.
- C=A projects $110.00, already exceeded. A 1.382×A reference is $122.17; the $122.17–$126.10 zone is a conditional completion area. A reversal has not yet confirmed a top.
Wrong if: price exceeds $126.10. That invalidates this simple recovery contained below its April origin; an expanded correction would need a revised count.
Alternate
A larger third wave up began at the July low
- Candidate wave 1 runs from the December 2025 low of $58.72 to April $126.10, and wave 2 retraces to July $70.14. The subsequent advance is a possible wave 3.
- A break above $126.10 favors this alternate. The first task is to clear the spring high; a distant 1.618×wave-1 projection near $179.16 is conditional, not a near-term price forecast.
- Internal impulse subdivisions are unconfirmed. WTI and Brent agreement would strengthen the market reading, but their correlated moves are not independent evidence.
Wrong if: price falls below $70.14, the start of the proposed third wave. Any broader bullish scenario would need a newly reviewed count.
| Level | Price | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| April high | $126.10 | Above: simple corrective-recovery primary invalid |
| C=1.382×A | $122.17 | Conditional completion reference |
| October high | $117.41 | Latest swing high |
| August low | $78.13 | Internal bullish structure weakens below |
| July low | $70.14 | Below: July-origin third-wave alternate invalid |
What tells them apart
- A rejection near $122.17–$126.10 followed by a lower high supports the corrective reading; touching the zone alone does not.
- A break above $126.10 invalidates the primary and favors the larger third-wave alternate. A fall below $70.14 invalidates that alternate.
Tracking this scenario
This count is a dated price scenario, not a trading position. It is not included in the crypto forward-return ledger: a futures investment comparison needs contract selection, rolls, collateral, costs and matched valuation times. The displayed price levels can still invalidate the scenario. No past returns are presented as evidence.
Hand-built, outcome-seen Elliott scenarios are not proof of forecasting skill. Contract rolls, collateral, costs and differing contract maturities are not modeled; the price difference versus WTI is not an executable spread. Source: Yahoo BZ=F historical prices.