Price session: 2026-11-02 · count reviewed: 2026-10-07 (27 days ago)
Feed retrieved: 2026-11-03T00:20:01Z
$76,674
-4.16% over 7 calendar days · -7.93% since count date
Neither level breached — both readings remain possible
Recorded wave reading
The 2025–26 bear phase ended at $57,735 in June; a new advance has started
What a wave trader would watch
The bullish case needs a pullback that holds and a renewed advance. Watch the $69,000 area on a retracement and $92,003–$100,091 on a rally; rejection in that upper zone fits the alternate. An unbroken distant invalidation is not an entry signal.
Primary wrong below$57,735No subsequent breach observed
Alternate wrong above$126,272No subsequent breach observed
Level check: daily close, on 26 completed sessions after the count date. Crypto checks describe the paper close rule, not a strict intraday Elliott-rule audit. A breach stays flagged even if price recovers.
Confirmation, targets and alternate count
Primary: The bear phase is over; a new advance has started
Alternate: The bear market has another leg down
- A rally through $100,091 that keeps going favours the primary; a stall and reversal in the $92,003–$100,091 zone favours the alternate.
- A pullback that holds above $69,000 and turns up in five waves supports the primary.
Targets are conditional scenario levels. A touch alone does not confirm a reversal or trigger an entry.
Latest logged paper stance: hold-btc; 1.000× holding BTC after 26 daily return intervals. No fees.
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Price session: 2026-11-02 · count reviewed: 2026-10-07 (27 days ago)
Feed retrieved: 2026-11-03T00:20:01Z
$2,253
-3.07% over 7 calendar days · -12.46% since count date
Neither level breached — both readings remain possible
Recorded wave reading
Correction ended at $1,506 in June; a new advance has started (wave 1 in progress)
What a wave trader would watch
Watch whether a pullback holds the $2,003–$2,157 wave-2 zone, then whether ETH can reclaim $2,807. The $4,109–$4,263 wave-3 projection is conditional on that sequence; it is not a target activated just because the June low survives.
Primary wrong below$1,506No subsequent breach observed
Alternate wrong above$4,957No subsequent breach observed
Level check: daily close, on 26 completed sessions after the count date. Crypto checks describe the paper close rule, not a strict intraday Elliott-rule audit. A breach stays flagged even if price recovers.
Confirmation, targets and alternate count
Primary: A five-year correction ended in June; a new advance has started
Alternate: The decline from $4,957 is not finished
- Shape of the next swings. The primary needs a clear five-wave advance, a pullback that holds above $2,003, then a strong move to new highs. The alternate expects overlapping, choppy three-wave rallies.
- Weekly closes. A hold above the 200-week average fits the primary; a drop back under it, and then under $2,003, shifts the odds toward the alternate.
Targets are conditional scenario levels. A touch alone does not confirm a reversal or trigger an entry.
Latest logged paper stance: hold-base; 0.951× holding BTC after 26 daily return intervals. No fees.
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Price session: 2026-11-02 · count reviewed: 2026-10-07 (27 days ago)
Feed retrieved: 2026-11-03T00:20:01Z
0.02933 BTC
+1.14% over 7 calendar days · -5.08% since count date
Neither level breached — both readings remain possible
Recorded wave reading
ETH vs BTC bottomed in Apr 2025; the Jun 2026 low ended wave 2 and wave 3 has started
What a wave trader would watch
This is the relative-allocation question: can ETH outperform BTC? A weekly close above 0.03687 BTC would improve the bullish case. ETH rising in dollars alone does not confirm this ratio count.
Primary wrong below0.02525 BTCNo subsequent breach observed
Alternate wrong above0.04327 BTCNo subsequent breach observed
Level check: daily close, on 26 completed sessions after the count date. Crypto checks describe the paper close rule, not a strict intraday Elliott-rule audit. A breach stays flagged even if price recovers.
Confirmation, targets and alternate count
Primary: ETH's long slide against BTC ended in April 2025
Alternate: ETH keeps losing ground to BTC
- A weekly close above 0.03687, the Dec 2025 lower high, breaks the chain of lower highs and favours the primary.
- A rally that stalls under 0.03687 and turns down hard, followed by a close below 0.02525, confirms the alternate.
Targets are conditional scenario levels. A touch alone does not confirm a reversal or trigger an entry.
Latest logged paper stance: hold-base; 0.949× holding BTC after 26 daily return intervals. No fees.
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Price session: 2026-11-02 · count reviewed: 2026-10-07 (27 days ago)
Feed retrieved: 2026-11-03T00:20:01Z
$91.98
-8.89% over 7 calendar days · -20.91% since count date
Neither level breached — both readings remain possible
Recorded wave reading
The 2025–26 correction ended at $60.13 in June; a new advance has started
What a wave trader would watch
Watch the $85–$93 pullback zone and a subsequent break above $124.95. A stall in the $178–$206 alternate bounce zone would need a reversal before supporting the bearish interpretation.
Primary wrong below$60.13No subsequent breach observed
Alternate wrong above$295.83No subsequent breach observed
Level check: daily close, on 26 completed sessions after the count date. Crypto checks describe the paper close rule, not a strict intraday Elliott-rule audit. A breach stays flagged even if price recovers.
Confirmation, targets and alternate count
Primary: Wave 2 ended in June; wave 3 has started
Alternate: The fall from $295.83 is not finished
- A pullback that holds the $85–$93 zone and then breaks above $124.95 supports the primary.
- A rally that stalls between $178 and $206 and then breaks back below $85 favours the alternate.
Targets are conditional scenario levels. A touch alone does not confirm a reversal or trigger an entry.
Latest logged paper stance: hold-base; 0.859× holding BTC after 26 daily return intervals. No fees.
Open annotated chart →
Price session: 2026-11-02 · count reviewed: 2026-10-07 (27 days ago)
Feed retrieved: 2026-11-03T00:20:01Z
0.001197 BTC
-4.94% over 7 calendar days · -14.22% since count date
Neither level breached — both readings remain possible
Recorded wave reading
SOL is still in a downtrend against BTC; the rally since June is a bounce
What a wave trader would watch
The working count favors BTC over SOL until the ratio breaks its primary threshold. A failure below that threshold followed by a break of 0.001127 BTC would favor the downtrend reading. This can disagree with a bullish SOL/USD count.
Primary wrong above0.001557 BTCNo subsequent breach observed
Alternate wrong below0.001008 BTCNo subsequent breach observed
Level check: daily close, on 26 completed sessions after the count date. Crypto checks describe the paper close rule, not a strict intraday Elliott-rule audit. A breach stays flagged even if price recovers.
Confirmation, targets and alternate count
Primary: The downtrend against BTC has one more leg
Alternate: SOL bottomed against BTC in June
- A daily close above 0.001557 settles it for the alternate.
- A turn down from below 0.001557 that breaks the August low of 0.001127 makes the primary much more likely.
Targets are conditional scenario levels. A touch alone does not confirm a reversal or trigger an entry.
Latest logged paper stance: hold-btc; 1.000× holding BTC after 26 daily return intervals. No fees.
Open annotated chart →
Price session: 2026-10-30 · count reviewed: 2026-10-23 (11 days ago)
Feed retrieved: 2026-11-03T00:20:01Z
$3,898.90
-2.72% over 7 calendar days · -2.72% since count date
Alternate level breached — primary remains a candidate
Recorded wave reading
Correction from January: candidate C down; June support at $3,955.40 is the near-term separator.
What a wave trader would watch
The recorded alternate has breached its displayed boundary; surviving primary levels are not proof the primary is correct. The immediate test is the June low at $3,955.40: a breach rejects the bullish retest alternate. A recovery through $4,755 rejects the simple C-down primary. Watch for a reversal structure, not merely proximity to support.
Primary wrong above$4,755.00No subsequent breach observed
Alternate wrong below$3,955.40Breach observed 2026-10-30
Level check: daily high/low, on 5 completed sessions after the count date. Crypto checks describe the paper close rule, not a strict intraday Elliott-rule audit. A breach stays flagged even if price recovers.
Confirmation, targets and alternate count
Primary: A larger A–B–C correction remains in progress
Alternate: June ended the correction; the June low survives a deep retest
- A breach below $3,955.40 invalidates the bullish retest alternate.
- A recovery above $4,755.00 invalidates the simple C-from-August primary. Until then both remain possible.
Targets are conditional scenario levels. A touch alone does not confirm a reversal or trigger an entry.
Unscored futures-price scenario. Rolls, collateral and costs are not modeled.
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Price session: 2026-10-30 · count reviewed: 2026-10-23 (11 days ago)
Feed retrieved: 2026-11-03T00:20:01Z
$104.12
+0.82% over 7 calendar days · +0.82% since count date
Neither level breached — both readings remain possible
Recorded wave reading
Rebound from July: corrective C up versus a larger third wave; $119.48 separates the readings.
What a wave trader would watch
Watch whether the rebound exhausts near $110.48–$117.05 or breaks the March high at $119.48. A rejection would fit corrective C; a breakout favors the larger third-wave alternate. The zone alone is not a short entry.
Primary wrong above$119.48No subsequent breach observed
Alternate wrong below$67.04No subsequent breach observed
Level check: daily high/low, on 5 completed sessions after the count date. Crypto checks describe the paper close rule, not a strict intraday Elliott-rule audit. A breach stays flagged even if price recovers.
Confirmation, targets and alternate count
Primary: The July rebound is an A–B–C recovery within the March decline
Alternate: A larger third wave up began in July
- A reversal below the March high fits the corrective-recovery primary; the reversal still has to occur.
- A break above $119.48 favors the larger third-wave alternate. A fall below $67.04 invalidates that alternate.
Targets are conditional scenario levels. A touch alone does not confirm a reversal or trigger an entry.
Unscored futures-price scenario. Rolls, collateral and costs are not modeled.
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Price session: 2026-10-30 · count reviewed: 2026-10-23 (11 days ago)
Feed retrieved: 2026-11-03T00:20:01Z
$117.64
+0.79% over 7 calendar days · +0.79% since count date
Neither level breached — both readings remain possible
Recorded wave reading
July rebound is approaching the April high: corrective C up versus a larger third wave; $126.10 separates the readings.
What a wave trader would watch
Watch the $122.17–$126.10 completion area. Rejection with a lower high favors corrective C; a break above $126.10 favors the larger third-wave alternate. Compare the sequence with WTI, using each benchmark’s own levels.
Primary wrong above$126.10No subsequent breach observed
Alternate wrong below$70.14No subsequent breach observed
Level check: daily high/low, on 5 completed sessions after the count date. Crypto checks describe the paper close rule, not a strict intraday Elliott-rule audit. A breach stays flagged even if price recovers.
Confirmation, targets and alternate count
Primary: An A–B–C recovery of the April–July decline is nearing resistance
Alternate: A larger third wave up began at the July low
- A rejection near $122.17–$126.10 followed by a lower high supports the corrective reading; touching the zone alone does not.
- A break above $126.10 invalidates the primary and favors the larger third-wave alternate. A fall below $70.14 invalidates that alternate.
Targets are conditional scenario levels. A touch alone does not confirm a reversal or trigger an entry.
Unscored futures-price scenario. Rolls, collateral and costs are not modeled.
Open annotated chart →
Counts are subjective scenarios, not demonstrated forecast skill. Price feeds may contain gaps or revisions. A stale-feed warning uses 36 hours since retrieval, or more than 2 calendar days since crypto close / 4 since commodity close; it is a heuristic, not an exchange-calendar audit. Existing crypto forward scores remain separate from these level checks.