Elliott wave series
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HOLD BTCCLEAR
not dollars
The 2025–26 bear phase ended at $57,735 in June; a new advance has started
Flips to HOLD USD on a daily close below $57,735 (-24.7%)
vs holding BTC: 1.000×
BTCBTC study
BTC priced in BTC is the benchmark itself. The BTC study asks whether to swap BTC for ETH or SOL: see the cards beside this one.
HOLD ETHCLEAR
not dollars
Correction ended at $1,506 in June; a new advance has started (wave 1 in progress)
Flips to HOLD USD on a daily close below $1,506 (-33.2%)
vs holding ETH: 1.000× · vs holding BTC: 0.951×
HOLD ETHCLEAR
instead of BTC
ETH vs BTC bottomed in Apr 2025; the Jun 2026 low ended wave 2 and wave 3 has started
Flips to HOLD BTC on a daily close below 0.02525 (-13.9%)
vs holding BTC: 0.949×
HOLD SOLCLEAR
not dollars
The 2025–26 correction ended at $60.13 in June; a new advance has started
Flips to HOLD USD on a daily close below $60.13 (-34.6%)
vs holding SOL: 1.000× · vs holding BTC: 0.859×
HOLD BTCCLEAR
not SOL
SOL is still in a downtrend against BTC; the rally since June is a bounce
Flips to HOLD SOL on a daily close above 0.001557 (+30.0%)
vs holding BTC: 1.000×
SCENARIO MAP
Correction from January: candidate C down; June support at $3,955.40 is the near-term separator.
Primary wrong above $4,755.00; alternate wrong at $3,955.40.
Futures price reference · no investment-return score
SCENARIO MAP
Rebound from July: corrective C up versus a larger third wave; $119.48 separates the readings.
Primary wrong above $119.48; alternate wrong at $67.04.
Futures price reference · no investment-return score
SCENARIO MAP
July rebound is approaching the April high: corrective C up versus a larger third wave; $126.10 separates the readings.
Primary wrong above $126.10; alternate wrong at $70.14.
Futures price reference · no investment-return score
USD study (top row): hold the coin or hold dollars? BTC study (second row): hold the coin or hold BTC? Each card follows its own chart's count.
price primary zones alternate zone primary wrong alternate wrong · CLEAR / WATCH / NEAR FLIP: the flip price is more than 12% / within 12% / within 5% away. Daily closes, refreshed 00:20 UTC.
Weekly Elliott wave counts for the markets we follow, each with a primary and an alternate reading and the price that would prove each one wrong. Gold, WTI and Brent use futures reference prices and are unscored scenario maps: rolls, collateral and costs are not modeled. Counts are interpretations; the crypto counts have a forward record: each scored count is logged with a stance (hold the coin, or switch if the count is proven wrong) and scored from the moment it was logged, against holding the coin and against holding BTC.
| Chart | Current read | Last close | Primary wrong at | Alternate wrong at | Stance | Forward vs BTC | Count date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | The 2025–26 bear phase ended at $57,735 in June; a new advance has started | $76,674 2026-11-02 | $57,735 -24.7% to reach | $126,272 +64.7% to reach | hold BTC; hold dollars if a close is below $57,735 | 1.000× | 2026-10-07 |
| ETH/USD | Correction ended at $1,506 in June; a new advance has started (wave 1 in progress) | $2,253 2026-11-02 | $1,506 -33.2% to reach | $4,957 +120.0% to reach | hold ETH; hold dollars if a close is below $1,506 | 0.951× | 2026-10-07 |
| ETH/BTC | ETH vs BTC bottomed in Apr 2025; the Jun 2026 low ended wave 2 and wave 3 has started | 0.02933 2026-11-02 | 0.02525 -13.9% to reach | 0.04327 +47.5% to reach | hold ETH; hold BTC if a close is below 0.02525 | 0.949× | 2026-10-07 |
| SOL/USD | The 2025–26 correction ended at $60.13 in June; a new advance has started | $91.98 2026-11-02 | $60.13 -34.6% to reach | $295.83 +221.6% to reach | hold SOL; hold dollars if a close is below $60.13 | 0.859× | 2026-10-07 |
| SOL/BTC | SOL is still in a downtrend against BTC; the rally since June is a bounce | 0.001197 2026-11-02 | 0.001557 +30.0% to reach | 0.001008 -15.8% to reach | hold BTC; hold SOL if a close is above 0.001557 | 1.000× | 2026-10-07 |
| Gold/USD (futures) | Correction from January: candidate C down; June support at $3,955.40 is the near-term separator. | $3,898.90 2026-10-30 | $4,755.00 +22.0% to reach | $3,955.40 +1.4% to reach | Scenario only; no investment-return score | — | 2026-10-23 |
| WTI crude/USD (futures) | Rebound from July: corrective C up versus a larger third wave; $119.48 separates the readings. | $104.12 2026-10-30 | $119.48 +14.8% to reach | $67.04 -35.6% to reach | Scenario only; no investment-return score | — | 2026-10-23 |
| Brent crude/USD (futures) | July rebound is approaching the April high: corrective C up versus a larger third wave; $126.10 separates the readings. | $117.64 2026-10-30 | $126.10 +7.2% to reach | $70.14 -40.4% to reach | Scenario only; no investment-return score | — | 2026-10-23 |
How the forward test works
- Holding BTC is the benchmark: 1.000× means the count's stance ended with exactly as much BTC as holding would have.
- Two studies run side by side. The USD study (BTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD) asks: hold the coin or hold dollars? It is scored against holding that coin, which tests the count's timing on its own chart, and in BTC against holding BTC. The BTC study (ETH/BTC, SOL/BTC) asks: hold the coin or hold BTC? It is scored against holding BTC.
- The two studies can disagree. ETH/USD can say "hold ETH, not dollars" while ETH/BTC says "hold BTC, not ETH". If ETH rises 30% in dollars and BTC rises 50%, both are right.
- A stance follows the primary count until a daily close beyond the primary's invalidation price, then the alternate's from the next close.
- Scoring starts at the first daily close after a count is logged. Logged entries are never edited; a revised count is a new entry, and each entry carries a hash so an edit would be caught.
- No fees are charged. Every stance change is a full swap, so a real account would do slightly worse.
Forward ledger
| Entry | Logged | Chart | Stance (primary → if wrong) | Primary wrong | vs BTC | vs the coin | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| btc-usd-1 | 2026-10-07T03:26:20Z | btc-usd | hold-btc → hold-usd | below 57734.63 | 1.000× | — | 938c4a76c1a5 |
| eth-usd-1 | 2026-10-07T05:20:13Z | eth-usd | hold-base → hold-usd | below 1505.68 | 0.951× | 1.000× | 81d1243508a1 |
| eth-btc-1 | 2026-10-07T03:26:20Z | eth-btc | hold-base → hold-btc | below 0.02525 | 0.949× | — | da9d05b54bab |
| sol-usd-1 | 2026-10-07T05:20:14Z | sol-usd | hold-base → hold-usd | below 60.13 | 0.859× | 1.000× | 7204a6b8ec76 |
| sol-btc-1 | 2026-10-07T03:26:20Z | sol-btc | hold-btc → hold-base | above 0.0015566 | 1.000× | — | f8d9c8c9870f |
Rendered 2026-11-03T00:20:48Z from runtime/elliott-daily (public daily candles; refresh with python scripts/elliott_series.py pull
then render). Elliott wave has not been tested in this program, and its tested results found chart-based timing did not
beat holding BTC. Treat these pages as scenario maps; the ledger is the test. Paper only.