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BTC/USD · weekly
Elliott wave read, as of 2026-10-07
Elliott wave counts are interpretations, not measurements, and two analysts can count the same chart differently. A count is only useful for its levels: where it says price should go next, and where it is proven wrong. Below are the count that fits best and the strongest alternative, each with the price that would kill it.
Primary
The bear phase is over; a new advance has started
- Five waves up from the Nov 2022 low of $15,479 to the Oct 2025 high of $126,272: (1) $31,818 Jul 2023, (2) $24,920 Sep 2023, (3) $73,794 Mar 2024, (4) $49,577 Aug 2024, (5) $126,272. Wave 3 is the longest in percentage terms, which satisfies the rule that wave 3 can never be the shortest.
- A three-wave correction from $126,272: (A) $59,930 Feb 2026, (B) $82,833 May 2026, (C) $57,735 Jun 2026, a 54% fall.
- The low retraced 61.9% of the whole 2022–2025 advance, almost exactly the 61.8% Fibonacci level that corrections often end at.
- A new advance started at $57,735. The rally to $87,374 (week of 21 Sep) is wave 1 of it, or part of wave 1.
- Next: a wave 2 pullback, typically to $72,554–$69,057, then wave 3. At 1.618× wave 1, wave 3 points to $117,013–$120,510, just under the old high.
Wrong if: a daily close below $57,735. Wave 2 cannot fall below the start of wave 1.
Alternate
The bear market has another leg down
- The fall to $57,735 was only wave A. The rally since is wave B.
- B waves often retrace 50–61.8% of A: $92,003–$100,091. The rally so far reached 43%.
- Wave C then falls about as far as A did, to roughly $42,000–$46,000, near the 2024 wave (4) low of $49,577 or below it.
- This fits BTC's history: its previous bear markets fell 77–86% from the top, and a 54% fall would be the shallowest on record.
Wrong if: BTC goes above $126,272. A B wave cannot exceed the start of A in this pattern.
| Level | Price | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| All-time high | $126,272 | Above it, the alternate is dead. |
| Wave 3 target (primary) | $117,013–$120,510 | 1.618× wave 1. |
| Bounce top (alternate) | $92,003–$100,091 | 50–61.8% of $126,272 → $57,735. |
| Recent high | $87,374 | Week of 21 Sep 2026. |
| Wave 2 zone (primary) | $69,057–$72,554 | Normal pullback depth if the primary is right. |
| June low | $57,735 | Below it, the primary is dead and the stance switches to dollars. |
What tells them apart
- A rally through $100,091 that keeps going favours the primary; a stall and reversal in the $92,003–$100,091 zone favours the alternate.
- A pullback that holds above $69,000 and turns up in five waves supports the primary.
Forward test against holding BTC
Stance logged for the forward test: hold BTC while the primary count stands, which is exactly the benchmark, so this count scores 1.000× until it is proven wrong. On a daily close below $57,735 the stance switches to hold dollars from the next close. It can only beat holding BTC if that switch happens and BTC then keeps falling.
Since 2026-10-07 (26 daily closes): following this count is worth 1.000× what holding BTC would be worth (1.000× = a tie).
Elliott wave counts are made by hand after looking at the whole history, so they are not evidence. Elliott wave has not been tested in this research program, and the program's tested results found that chart-based timing did not beat simply holding BTC. Treat this page as a map of scenarios and the prices that would prove each one wrong. The count starts at the Nov 2022 low. BTC's 2011–2022 cycles are on the chart but are not counted here, because published counts across them disagree too widely to be useful.