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ETH/BTC · weekly
Lower panel: how far the ratio sits above or below its own 200-week average, on a log scale so a +100% stretch and a −50% one are the same distance. It describes the chart and is not a signal: this is one long run of data, not many independent episodes, and rules that buy an alt when it looks cheap against BTC failed this program's tests.
Elliott wave read, as of 2026-10-07
Elliott wave counts are interpretations, not measurements, and two analysts can count the same chart differently. A count is only useful for its levels: where it says price should go next, and where it is proven wrong. Below are the count that fits best and the strongest alternative, each with the price that would kill it. This is the chart that decides whether holding ETH beats holding BTC.
Primary
ETH's long slide against BTC ended in April 2025
- A seven-year correction from the Jan 2018 high of 0.1238: (A) down to 0.01615 in Sep 2019, (B) up to 0.0884 in Dec 2021, (C) down to 0.01766 in Apr 2025. (C) stopped above the end of (A), a running flat.
- Wave 1 up, Apr to Aug 2025: 0.01766 to 0.04327, +145% in four months. A move that fast and clean is the strongest sign on this chart that the trend turned.
- Wave 2 down, Aug 2025 to Jun 2026, in three waves: a 0.0309, b 0.03687, c 0.02525. It retraced 70% of wave 1, deep but normal for a wave 2.
- Wave 3 up started at 0.02525. The rise to 0.03342 in August is its first small wave, (i).
- Next: a pullback that holds above 0.02525, then a break above the wave 1 high of 0.04327. At 1.618× wave 1, wave 3 points to about 0.0667.
Wrong if: a daily close below 0.02525. Wave 2 cannot fall below the start of wave 1.
Alternate
ETH keeps losing ground to BTC
- The decline from the Dec 2021 high is not over. The 2025 surge was a large countertrend bounce inside it, not a new trend.
- The rally from 0.02525 is another bounce. It should fail below the recent lower highs, 0.03342 (Aug 2026) to 0.03687 (Dec 2025).
- Then a final leg to new lows under 0.01766, possibly under the 2019 low of 0.01615.
- This fits the long record: over the program's tested periods, alts as a group lost to BTC.
Wrong if: ETH/BTC goes above 0.04327, the 2025 high. That would confirm a new uptrend.
| Level | Price | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Wave 1 high | 0.04327 | Above it, the alternate is dead and wave 3 is confirmed. |
| Wave 3 target (primary) | about 0.0667 | 1.618× wave 1 added to the wave 2 low. |
| Failure zone (alternate) | 0.03342–0.03687 | The recent lower highs. A stall and turn here favours the alternate. |
| Last close | 0.03153 | Week of 5 Oct 2026. |
| Pullback zone (primary) | 0.02837–0.02933 | 50–61.8% of the first small wave of wave 3. |
| Wave 2 low | 0.02525 | Below it, the primary is dead and the stance switches to BTC. |
What tells them apart
- A weekly close above 0.03687, the Dec 2025 lower high, breaks the chain of lower highs and favours the primary.
- A rally that stalls under 0.03687 and turns down hard, followed by a close below 0.02525, confirms the alternate.
Forward test against holding BTC
Stance logged for the forward test: hold ETH instead of BTC while the primary count stands. On a daily close below 0.02525 (the primary's invalidation) the stance switches to hold BTC from the next close. Scored in BTC against simply holding BTC.
Since 2026-10-07 (26 daily closes): following this count is worth 0.949× what holding BTC would be worth (1.000× = a tie).
Elliott wave counts are made by hand after looking at the whole history, so they are not evidence. Elliott wave has not been tested in this research program, and the program's tested results found that chart-based timing did not beat simply holding BTC. Treat this page as a map of scenarios and the prices that would prove each one wrong. This data starts in July 2017, after ETH/BTC's 2017 run, so its earliest history is not here.