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Gold/USD (futures) · weekly
Elliott wave read, as of 2026-10-23
A hand-built weekly interpretation using completed sessions through 23 October 2026. The labels are candidate structures; internal subdivisions have not been established at every degree. Invalidation uses an intraday breach of the named level, not a daily-close trading rule.
Primary
A larger A–B–C correction remains in progress
- The January 2026 peak at $5,586.20 starts the working correction. A falls to $3,955.40 on 30 June; B rebounds to $4,755.00 on 25 August.
- The decline after August is candidate C. The 23 October close of $4,007.90 is approaching the June low; a break below $3,955.40 would support this reading.
- C equal to A projects $3,124.20 from the August high. A shorter 0.618×A projects $3,747.17. These are conditional reference levels, not a forecast interval.
Wrong if: price exceeds $4,755.00 before a new C low is established. That invalidates this simple decline-from-August count; a more complex correction would need a new count.
Alternate
June ended the correction; the June low survives a deep retest
- Treat the June low at $3,955.40 as the end of the whole correction. June–August is a candidate first advance and the current decline a deep second-wave retracement.
- The 23 October low of $3,989.10 remains above June, so this alternate is still possible. A turn upward followed by reclaiming $4,755 would favor it.
- This alternate is tentative: the June–August advance needs finer-degree subdivision before calling it a confirmed impulse.
Wrong if: price falls below $3,955.40. A second wave cannot exceed the start of its first wave.
| Level | Price | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| January peak | $5,586.20 | Origin of the larger correction |
| August rebound | $4,755.00 | Above: primary simple C decline invalid |
| June low | $3,955.40 | Below: bullish retest alternate invalid |
| 0.618×A projection | $3,747.17 | Conditional C reference |
| C=A projection | $3,124.20 | Conditional equal-leg reference |
What tells them apart
- A breach below $3,955.40 invalidates the bullish retest alternate.
- A recovery above $4,755.00 invalidates the simple C-from-August primary. Until then both remain possible.
Tracking this scenario
This count is a dated price scenario, not a trading position. It is not included in the crypto forward-return ledger: a futures investment comparison needs contract selection, rolls, collateral, costs and matched valuation times. The displayed price levels can still invalidate the scenario. No past returns are presented as evidence.
This is outcome-seen chart interpretation, not evidence that Elliott wave forecasts work. The public futures reference can change contracts and revise old bars. It does not measure spot ownership or the return on a rolled futures portfolio. Source: Yahoo historical prices.