← Elliott wave series · Latest briefing · all charts
SOL/BTC · weekly
Lower panel: how far the ratio sits above or below its own 200-week average, on a log scale so a +100% stretch and a −50% one are the same distance. It describes the chart and is not a signal: this is one long run of data, not many independent episodes, and rules that buy an alt when it looks cheap against BTC failed this program's tests.
Elliott wave read, as of 2026-10-07
Elliott wave counts are interpretations, not measurements, and two analysts can count the same chart differently. A count is only useful for its levels: where it says price should go next, and where it is proven wrong. Below are the count that fits best and the strongest alternative, each with the price that would kill it. This is the chart that decides whether holding SOL beats holding BTC.
Primary
The downtrend against BTC has one more leg
- SOL/BTC has made lower highs since its Mar 2024 top of 0.003101: 0.002818 Jan 2025, 0.002156 Sep 2025, 0.001840 Oct 2025.
- Wave (A) down to 0.001256 in Jun 2025, wave (B) back up to 0.002156 in Sep 2025, then wave (C) down, still in progress.
- Inside (C): (1) 0.001557 Oct 2025, (2) 0.001840 Oct 2025, (3) 0.001008 Jun 2026. The rally since June, to 0.001472, is wave (4).
- Next: wave (5) to a new low under 0.001008. If (C) equals (A) in percentage terms, it ends near 0.000873.
- Unlike ETH/BTC, this chart has had no fast, clean rally that would signal a change of trend.
Wrong if: a daily close above 0.001557. Wave (4) cannot rise above the end of wave (1).
Alternate
SOL bottomed against BTC in June
- Wave (C) ended at 0.001008, a little short of equal to (A).
- The August low (0.001127) was higher than June's, and the rally then broke above the June bounce high of 0.00135: the first higher high in over a year.
- Targets: 0.001840 and then the Sep 2025 high of 0.002156.
Wrong if: a close below 0.001008, the June low.
| Level | Price | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2025 high | 0.002156 | Wave (B). Above it the long downtrend is over. |
| Alternate target | 0.001840–0.002156 | Prior lower highs. |
| Primary invalidation | 0.001557 | Wave (1) low. A close above it kills the primary and switches the stance to SOL. |
| Recent high | 0.001472 | Week of 21 Sep 2026. |
| June low | 0.001008 | End of wave (3), and the alternate's invalidation. |
| Wave (5) target (primary) | 0.000873–0.001008 | (C) equal to (A) in percentage terms. |
What tells them apart
- A daily close above 0.001557 settles it for the alternate.
- A turn down from below 0.001557 that breaks the August low of 0.001127 makes the primary much more likely.
Forward test against holding BTC
Stance logged for the forward test: hold BTC while the primary count stands, which is the benchmark, so this count scores 1.000× until it is proven wrong. On a daily close above 0.001557 the stance switches to hold SOL from the next close.
Since 2026-10-07 (26 daily closes): following this count is worth 1.000× what holding BTC would be worth (1.000× = a tie).
Elliott wave counts are made by hand after looking at the whole history, so they are not evidence. Elliott wave has not been tested in this research program, and the program's tested results found that chart-based timing did not beat simply holding BTC. Treat this page as a map of scenarios and the prices that would prove each one wrong. SOL/BTC data starts in August 2020.