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WTI crude/USD (futures) · weekly
Elliott wave read, as of 2026-10-23
A hand-built weekly interpretation using completed sessions through 23 October 2026. The labels are candidate structures; internal subdivisions have not been established at every degree. Invalidation uses an intraday breach of the named level, not a daily-close trading rule.
Primary
The July rebound is an A–B–C recovery within the March decline
- The March high at $119.48 is followed by the July low at $67.04. The primary treats the subsequent rise as a corrective recovery of that decline.
- Candidate A rises to $93.50 on 23 July; B retraces to $74.24 on 5 August. C is advancing and reached $110.48 on 20 October.
- C=A gives $100.70 (already exceeded); C=1.618×A gives $117.05. The $110.48–$117.05 zone is a place to watch for completion, not proof of a top.
Wrong if: price exceeds $119.48. That invalidates this simple recovery contained below the March origin; an expanded structure would require relabeling.
Alternate
A larger third wave up began in July
- The larger bullish alternate labels the advance from the December 2025 low $54.98 to March $119.48 as candidate wave 1, followed by wave 2 to July $67.04.
- The rally since July is then an unfolding wave 3, with July–August as possible internal waves 1 and 2. A sustained break above $119.48 favors this count.
- At 1.618× the December–March advance, a larger third-wave reference is $171.40 from July. This distant projection only matters if the nearer March high breaks; finer-degree impulse structure remains unconfirmed.
Wrong if: price falls below $67.04, the start of the proposed third wave. The still broader December-origin bullish idea would require a separate revised count.
| Level | Price | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| March high | $119.48 | Above: simple corrective-recovery primary invalid |
| C=1.618×A | $117.05 | Conditional recovery projection |
| October high | $110.48 | Recent swing high |
| August low | $74.24 | Internal bullish structure weakens below |
| July low | $67.04 | Below: July-origin third-wave alternate invalid |
What tells them apart
- A reversal below the March high fits the corrective-recovery primary; the reversal still has to occur.
- A break above $119.48 favors the larger third-wave alternate. A fall below $67.04 invalidates that alternate.
Tracking this scenario
This count is a dated price scenario, not a trading position. It is not included in the crypto forward-return ledger: a futures investment comparison needs contract selection, rolls, collateral, costs and matched valuation times. The displayed price levels can still invalidate the scenario. No past returns are presented as evidence.
This is outcome-seen chart interpretation, not evidence that Elliott wave forecasts work. The public futures reference can change contracts and revise old bars. It does not measure spot ownership or the return on a rolled futures portfolio. Source: Yahoo historical prices.