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ETH/USD · weekly
Elliott wave read, as of 2026-10-07
Elliott wave counts are interpretations, not measurements, and two analysts can count the same chart differently. A count is only useful for its levels: where it says price should go next, and where it is proven wrong. Below are the count that fits best and the strongest alternative, each with the price that would kill it.
Primary
A five-year correction ended in June; a new advance has started
- Wave I up, Dec 2018 low $82 to Nov 2021 high $4,868, in five waves: (1) $367 Jun 2019, (2) $86 Mar 2020, (3) $4,373 May 2021, (4) $1,700 Jun 2021, (5) $4,868.
- Wave II down as a running flat, Nov 2021 to Jun 2026: (A) to $882 in Jun 2022, (B) to a marginal new high of $4,957 in Aug 2025, (C) to $1,506 in Jun 2026. In a running flat, (C) stops above the end of (A), which is read as underlying strength.
- The (C) leg itself is a three-wave move: $1,748 Feb 2026, $2,465 Apr 2026, $1,506 Jun 2026. A three-wave decline is corrective, which fits this count.
- Wave III up started at $1,506. The rally to $2,807 (week of 21 Sep) is wave 1 of it, or part of wave 1. Its top is not confirmed yet.
- Next: a wave 2 pullback, typically 50–61.8% of wave 1 ($2,157–$2,003), then wave 3. At 1.618× wave 1, wave 3 points to $4,109–$4,263, the same zone as the 2024 double top ($4,094 and $4,108).
Wrong if: a daily close below $1,506. Wave 2 cannot fall below the start of wave 1.
Alternate
The decline from $4,957 is not finished
- Same wave I. Wave II is an expanded flat instead of a running one, and its (C) leg is still in progress.
- $1,506 ended only the first part of (C). The current rally is a countertrend bounce, which typically retraces 50–61.8% of the fall from $4,957: $3,232–$3,639.
- The rally so far stalled at $2,807, almost exactly the 38.2% retracement ($2,824).
- In an expanded flat, (C) usually ends below the end of (A). That points under $1,506 and toward the 2022 lows around $880–$1,075.
Wrong if: price goes above $4,957. A countertrend bounce cannot exceed the start of the fall.
| Level | Price | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| All-time high | $4,957 | Above it, the alternate is dead. |
| Wave 3 target (primary) | $4,109–$4,263 | 1.618× wave 1; same zone as the 2024 double top. |
| Bounce zone (alternate) | $3,232–$3,639 | 50–61.8% of $4,957 → $1,506. A stall and reversal here favours the alternate. |
| Recent high | $2,807 | A weekly close above it after a pullback says wave 3 has started. |
| Wave 2 zone (primary) | $2,003–$2,157 | Normal pullback depth if the primary is right. |
| June low | $1,506 | Below it, the primary is dead. |
What tells them apart
- Shape of the next swings. The primary needs a clear five-wave advance, a pullback that holds above $2,003, then a strong move to new highs. The alternate expects overlapping, choppy three-wave rallies.
- Weekly closes. A hold above the 200-week average fits the primary; a drop back under it, and then under $2,003, shifts the odds toward the alternate.
Forward test against holding BTC
Stance logged for the USD study: hold ETH while the primary count stands. On a daily close below $1,506 (the primary's invalidation) the stance switches to hold dollars from the next close. It is scored two ways: against simply holding ETH (did the count time this chart well?) and in BTC against holding BTC (your benchmark). Whether to hold ETH instead of BTC is a separate study on the ETH/BTC page.
Since 2026-10-07 (26 daily closes): following this count is worth 0.951× what holding BTC would be worth and 1.000× what holding ETH would be worth (1.000× = a tie).
Elliott wave counts are made by hand after looking at the whole history, so they are not evidence. Elliott wave has not been tested in this research program, and the program's tested results found that chart-based timing did not beat simply holding BTC. Treat this page as a map of scenarios and the prices that would prove each one wrong. This data starts in August 2017, so ETH's 2015–2017 history is not here, and the count anchors wave I at the December 2018 low.