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SOL/USD · weekly
Elliott wave read, as of 2026-10-07
Elliott wave counts are interpretations, not measurements, and two analysts can count the same chart differently. A count is only useful for its levels: where it says price should go next, and where it is proven wrong. Below are the count that fits best and the strongest alternative, each with the price that would kill it.
Primary
Wave 2 ended in June; wave 3 has started
- Wave 1 up, Dec 2022 low $8.00 to Jan 2025 high $295.83, in five waves: (1) $32.13 Jul 2023, (2) $17.33 Sep 2023, (3) $210.18 Mar 2024, (4) $110 Aug 2024, (5) $295.83.
- Wave 2 down, Jan 2025 to Jun 2026, in three waves: (A) $95.26 Apr 2025, (B) $253.51 Sep 2025, (C) $60.13 Jun 2026. (C) went below the end of (A), which is the normal shape.
- Wave 2 gave back 82% of wave 1 in dollar terms. That is deep, and it is the weak point of this count.
- Wave 3 up started at $60.13. The rally to $124.95 (week of 21 Sep) is its first small wave, (i).
- Next: a pullback to about $92.54–$84.89, then a stronger leg toward $189.77–$197.42.
Wrong if: a daily close below $60.13. Wave 2 cannot fall below the start of wave 1.
Alternate
The fall from $295.83 is not finished
- The 2021 top ($259.90) and the 2025 top ($295.83) are one large topping area, like ETH's, and the decline from it is still in progress.
- $60.13 ended only part of it. The current rally is a bounce that typically stops at 50–61.8% of the fall: $177.98–$205.79.
- Then new lows under $60.13, toward the 2022–2023 highs of $32–$48.
Wrong if: SOL goes above $295.83.
| Level | Price | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| All-time high | $295.83 | Above it, the alternate is dead. |
| Bounce top (alternate) | $177.98–$205.79 | 50–61.8% of $295.83 → $60.13. |
| Next target (primary) | $189.77–$197.42 | 1.618× the first small wave. |
| Recent high | $124.95 | Week of 21 Sep 2026. |
| Pullback zone (primary) | $84.89–$92.54 | 50–61.8% of the rally from $60.13. |
| June low | $60.13 | Below it, the primary is dead. |
What tells them apart
- A pullback that holds the $85–$93 zone and then breaks above $124.95 supports the primary.
- A rally that stalls between $178 and $206 and then breaks back below $85 favours the alternate.
Forward test against holding BTC
Stance logged for the USD study: hold SOL while the primary count stands. On a daily close below $60.13 (the primary's invalidation) the stance switches to hold dollars from the next close. It is scored two ways: against simply holding SOL (did the count time this chart well?) and in BTC against holding BTC (your benchmark). Whether to hold SOL instead of BTC is a separate study on the SOL/BTC page.
Since 2026-10-07 (26 daily closes): following this count is worth 0.859× what holding BTC would be worth and 1.000× what holding SOL would be worth (1.000× = a tie).
Elliott wave counts are made by hand after looking at the whole history, so they are not evidence. Elliott wave has not been tested in this research program, and the program's tested results found that chart-based timing did not beat simply holding BTC. Treat this page as a map of scenarios and the prices that would prove each one wrong. SOL/USDT data starts in August 2020. A rising SOL/USD can still lose to BTC; the SOL/BTC page answers that question.